The Q4 2021 Composite Business Optimism Index (BOI) stands at 11.27%, a 5.98 percentage point upward adjustment from the previous quarter at 5.29%. The survey concludes a net weighted 5.06% of the respondents are still optimistic that their business will improve in this quarter, slightly higher than the previous quarter at 2.39%, while only 1.22% of them express the opposite and the remaining 93.72% see no change. Compared with the previous survey (q-on-q), two parameters (Inventory and Employment) have sprung into negative territory while Volume of Sales, Net Profit, and New Orders record inclining trend and Selling Price becomes the only parameter that stagnated.
Indonesia's economy has actually begun to recover since the beginning of 2021. This trend is reflected in the realization of economic growth of 7.07 percent in the second quarter of 2021. Although the government has implemented stricter public activity restrictions since July 2021, the national economic growth is projected to continue to gather momentum which is supported by improved export performance, continued fiscal and non-fiscal stimulus, improved investment, accelerated Covid-19 vaccination program, as well as the opening of priority business sectors. The government projected that national economic growth in the third quarter of 2021 will still be in the positive territory, even though public activity has decreased significantly due to the implementation of Public Activity Restrictions (PPKM). The government still believes that national economic growth will be in the positive zone until the end of 2021 in the range of 3.7 percent to 4.5 percent from the previous projection of 4.5 percent to 5.3 percent.
The second wave of COVID-19 that occurred in the third quarter has weakened Indonesia's economic growth projections this year. The World Bank lowered its projection for Indonesia's economic growth to 3.7%, from 4.4% released last April. On the other hand, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) also corrected the prediction of Indonesia's economic growth within this year to only reach 4.1%. Whereas in the previous report, ADB estimated Indonesia's economy to grow 4.5%. To maintain positive economic growth, the government will continue to focus on efforts to control COVID-19 during the PPKM period, by accelerating the national vaccination program and maintaining the sustainability of the business sectors by providing a series of fiscal and non-fiscal incentives.